The Market Is Splitting in Two: What Sellers Are Getting Wrong Right Now

A conversation with Luke Sacco, partner of Nelson Alexander Northcote, on Property, Straight Up

On this episode of Property, Straight Up, Warwick Brookes sits down with Luke Sacco, partner of the Nelson Alexander Northcote office, for a wide ranging conversation about building a long career in real estate and what is actually happening in the market today. Luke has spent close to twenty five years in the industry, starting out as a leasing consultant in property management before moving into sales, auctioneering and, eventually, leadership. His read on the current market is blunt: it is no longer one market, but several, all moving at different speeds.

A Career Built on Consistency

Luke fell into real estate almost by accident. Fresh out of school and working a factory job that clearly was not for him, he took a leasing role because he liked talking to people and, in his words, did not want to get his hands dirty. Nearly twenty five years later, he is a partner at one of the north’s largest agencies.

His advice to anyone starting out today is simple. There is no shortcut, no clever advertising trick and no substitute for doing the work. Consistency and looking after clients properly are what keep the phone ringing, and that has not changed in two and a half decades.

A Market Splitting in Two

The clearest theme of the conversation is that the market is no longer moving as one. Investors have largely disappeared from Luke’s patch over the past three to five years. In their place, the market between zero and two million dollars remains genuinely active, driven by first home buyers who are cautious and need more time, more information and more reassurance than they once did, but who are still transacting with confidence.

Above three million dollars, the picture is very different. Activity has not collapsed so much as paused, with buyers sitting back and waiting to see how the broader economic picture plays out before committing.

Renovated Wins, Unrenovated Waits

One of the sharpest shifts Luke has observed is the growing gap between renovated and unrenovated properties. Where a single fronted terrace and its renovated equivalent used to sell for roughly the same price, buyers now pay a clear premium for homes they can move into without lifting a tool.

The reason is straightforward: the cost and uncertainty of building work has spooked buyers, many of whom have heard one too many horror stories about blown budgets and unreliable builders. Rather than take on a renovation themselves, buyers are choosing to pay more upfront for a finished product and skip the risk altogether.

Fewer Auctions, More Strategy

Sale methods have changed just as much as buyer behaviour. A few years ago, Luke’s team put almost everything to auction. Today, out of every ten listings, only three or four go to auction, a similar number run as expressions of interest, and the rest are sold off market entirely.

Much of this is driven by strategy rather than preference. Campaigns increasingly start off market, with the agency gauging buyer feedback and interest before deciding whether to move into an auction or an expressions of interest process. It relies heavily on the strength of an agency’s relationships with buyers, and Luke sees that as the real differentiator in the current climate.

Proposed government changes requiring agents to advertise a reserve price do not concern him. If everyone is playing by the same rules, he argues, it should reduce underquoting and level the playing field. He does expect the changes to push more sellers toward expressions of interest and off market campaigns as agents look for ways to manage nervous, price sensitive buyers.

Where Sellers Are Going Wrong

Asked directly about the mistakes he is seeing, Luke points to a handful of recurring issues. Sellers are rushing to market before their property is ready. Presentation is being underestimated, from small repairs and touch ups through to full staging. Some sellers are choosing an agent based on the wrong criteria rather than checking whether that agent genuinely has an active buyer database. And many are anchoring their price expectations to what their home, or the market generally, was worth six or twelve months ago rather than where values sit today.

That last point matters more than it might seem. Luke’s office is now regularly reselling properties bought in 2021, at prices below what those buyers originally paid. Vendors who price against outdated benchmarks and then need to chase the market down with repeated price drops typically end up achieving less than if they had priced realistically from day one.

Presentation deserves particular attention. Luke compares it to detailing a car before selling it: buyers only get one first impression, and if they walk through a property and are not immediately drawn in, it is very hard to bring them back. Quality staging matters too, and not just the price tag attached to it. Furniture that does not suit the scale or style of a home reflects poorly on the property itself, even in a home worth several million dollars.

Why the Inner North Keeps Drawing Buyers

Much of Luke’s business sits along the High Street corridor through Northcote, Thornbury and into Preston and Reservoir, an area he describes as having a genuine buzz to it these days, with cafes, bars and restaurants that simply were not there when he started out. First home buyers priced out of Collingwood and Fitzroy are increasingly working their way north through this corridor, drawn by good public transport along St Georges Road and High Street and by value that is harder to find closer to the city. In Northcote specifically, Luke is now seeing most first home buyers active in the 1.3 to 1.6 million dollar range.

What Is Ahead for the Rest of the Year

Looking toward the end of the year, Luke expects listing volumes to tighten. Following recent interest rate rises and the federal budget, his office has already seen a drop in appraisal requests, which typically flows through to fewer new listings in coming months. That could work in sellers’ favour if it tightens supply, but it comes alongside buyers who are noticeably more cautious, taking extra inspections, commissioning building reports and involving family before making a decision. Every transaction, in Luke’s words, is taking a little bit longer to get across the line.

The tougher conditions have also prompted some agents to leave the industry altogether, with a handful of Luke’s own colleagues moving into buyer advocacy. His view is that experienced agents who have consistently looked after their clients will continue to be busy regardless of where the broader market sits.

The One Thing That Never Changes

After nearly twenty five years in the industry, Luke’s closing observation is that no amount of technology changes the fact that people like dealing with people. Nothing replaces sitting in someone’s living room and giving them honest advice, and that personal connection, he believes, is something artificial intelligence will always struggle to replicate in an industry built on trust and emotion.

Takeaways for Sellers Right Now
  • Price against genuinely comparable recent sales rather than memories of what the market was doing a year or two ago.
  • Invest in proper presentation and staging before the first open for inspection, since first impressions are difficult to undo.
  • Choose an agent based on the strength of their buyer database and relationships, not just how they pitch the listing.
  • Stay flexible on sale method. Testing buyer interest off market or through an early campaign before committing to auction can produce a better outcome than locking in a method too early.

 

Takeaways for Buyers Right Now
  • Expect genuine competition in the entry to mid price range, particularly across Northcote, Thornbury, Preston and Reservoir.
  • Factor renovation costs and time into any offer on unrenovated stock, given the premium buyers are now paying for turnkey homes.
  • Take the time you need. Building inspections and multiple viewings are now the norm, and sellers and agents expect it.

 

This article is based on a conversation between Warwick Brookes and Luke Sacco, partner of Nelson Alexander Northcote, on Property, Straight Up. Listen to the full episode here.

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